Analysis of Phytoplankton bloom phenology by identification of gaussian mixture for the period 1989-2014 in the southern bight of the North Sea.
Résumé
Phytoplankton sampled weekly within the IGA monitoring programme since 1989, corre-
spond to one of the longest time series in France. This time series is significant to further
knowledge on phytoplankton bloom dynamics in the context of the regional massive outburst of
the Prymnesiophycea Phaeocystis globosa.
We provide a four steps innovative method of missing data completion and classification applied
to Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) time series in order to define various typology of algae blooms. These
scheme are then analysed according to taxonomic composition.
First step corresponds to data preprocessing: data validation, time shifting and missing data
completion using fuzzy logic.
Second step consists of identifying characteristic frequencies for multi-scale modelling. In our
Chl-a case study, conventional approaches like correlation techniques, trend or mode decompo-
sition allow to extract main cycles when considering phytoplankton blooms. Nevertheless, they
are ineffective for analysis at small scales, closer to the real temporal dynamics of phytoplankton
blooms. Spectral classification is used to identify sets of yearly shape-profiles. Five Chl-a pro-
files were discriminated, in which 2 are dominant, non successive and with a non-regular rotation.
Third part concerns the identification of recurrent or rare events that look like an asymmet-
ric bell-shaped curve. As first study, we consider these events as Gauss curve. So, an algorithm
to estimate gaussian mixture is proposed to model seasonal series and each yearly Chl-a series.
A comparison between model from the seasonal decomposition and obtained models per year
show an important variability of the number of gaussians, of their shapes and also of their dates
of beginning and end of the bloom, duration.
Last process is the correspondence analysis between obtained Gauss curves and the associated
phytoplankton composition. Three gaussians are characterized by one to three taxa (> 95% of
abundance) and a dominance of Phaeocystis Globosa. Other gaussians are relative to Bacillar-
iophyceae dynamics.